Tropical system likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend

Chance of Development

A well defined area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula is battling wind shear this morning, but that will relax later today and tonight. With warm waters below and less wind shear above, it's highly likely (90% chance) the low pressure will organize and become a tropical depression or even tropical storm Alberto today or Saturday.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is expected to investigate the system this afternoon, with two more flights scheduled tomorrow.

What will likely become Alberto will move toward the northern Gulf coast through the weekend. Every single reliable model shows the system making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle early next week.

Whatever becomes of this system will stay well south and west of our area, but a plume of tropical moisture far to the east of the system will likely get pulled up the eastern seaboard. Based on the latest models, that tropical moisture will move through our area late Sunday and Monday enhancing our chances for showers and storms.

While no one day looks to be a total washout, if you plan to be outside for several hours (especially Sunday and Monday), chances are you will get wet. Remember, there's lots of dry time and some sun between heavy downpours.

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