Chance of Development

8-21-17 MONDAY 8AM

Ed Piotrowski -

The remnants of Harvey are moving through the Caribbean Sea toward Central America. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a high chance that the system will regain strength. Harvey is not a threat to the United States.

WAVE #1 - A tropical wave north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is still producing disorganized showers and storms. With increased wind shear, conditions are not very favorable for development in the near-term. Conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the state of Florida later this week. Anytime a tropical wave enters the Bahamas like this one, it bears watching.

WAVE #2 - A tropical wave in the Central Atlantic is wrapped up in dry air and moving through an area of high wind shear. For this reason, any kind of development is not expected. Regardless, a strong trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard later this week would keep whatever becomes of this system out to sea.

1/3 of the hurricane season is behind us, but we have a long, long way to go. Historically, more than 90% of all hurricanes occur after August 1st when waters are at their warmest and wind shear at its lowest. Additionally, activity in the tropics doesn't peak until September 10th.

Since 1900, only two category 4 hurricanes have hit the SC coast and both came well past the peak of hurricane season. Hugo made landfall on September 22nd, 1989 and Hazel made landfall on October 15th, 1954.

Although Matthew was barely even a hurricane at landfall on October 8th, 2016, it still caused extensive damage.

Make sure you have a hurricane plan ready, just in case!