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10-6-7: Tropical Storm Nate aiming for Gulf coast, another disturbance in Atlantic

Mostly Likely Scenario

10-6-7 FRIDAY 11AM

As of Friday morning, Tropical Storm Nate has 50 mph maximum sustained wind. The center of the storm is between Honduras and Mexico in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and barreling east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Due to low wind shear and warm water, Nate will likely become a hurricane once the storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Afterward, Nate will accelerate to the north-northwest toward the Gulf coast of the United States.

The track hasn't shifted much over the past 24 hours but the storm is moving quicker. There's good agreement Nate (as a Category 1 hurricane) will approach and make landfall somewhere between coastal Louisiana and the western panhandle of Florida late Saturday or early Sunday. However, a very subtle shift eastward as of the 11am advisory means it could be a tad stronger at landfall within the terrain of the Yucatan Peninsula to slow it down.

Even with the slight track shift, if this trend continues, our impacts will be virtually zero. There's a moist, area of low pressure around Florida now that will cause showers and storms there. Due to rotation around Nate and rotation around high pressure in the Atlantic, wind will turn out of the south-southeast this weekend and early next week for the Carolinas. This will bring ALL THAT moisture to us! This increases our rain chances and humidity, but nothing else.

As always, stay weather aware and updated for any changes.


Elsewhere in the tropics, we are watching an area in the north-eastern Atlantic with a medium chance of development over the next 5 days. The good news? This is no threat to the United States.

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