3pm 10-5-17 Tropical Storm Nate's Track Shifts West
Nate became a tropical storm this morning with 40mph and is now located over Nicaragua. Once it moves away from Central America tonight, Nate will be in a very favorable environment for intensifying. The waters below are very warm and the wind shear above very light so Nate will likely become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico Saturday. By then Nate is accelerating to the northwest then north meaning it will likely spend roughly 24-26 hours over the Gulf of Mexico. Since last night, the models have shifted west and have settled on a track that brings Nate ashore between central Lousiana and the western Florida Panhandle sometime Sunday. All along I've felt any impacts from Nate in our area would be low. With that track farther west now, chances are Increasing we won't see any impacts at all.
I think with either scenario below, the overall impacts are low and mainly Sunday night through Monday night.
SCENARIO #1 - WESTERLY TRACK - MOST LIKEY (75%)
A track west of the Appalachian mountains wouldn't produce impacts here. Moisture increasing from a low pressure over Florida (NOT Nate) will produce scattered showers Sunday and Monday, but rain totals would likely be less than a half inch of rain. Obviously, that wouldn't produce any flooding. This track would not produce any high wind or a tornado threat.
SCENARIO #2 - EASTERLY TRACK - LEAST LIKELY (25%)
A track east of the Appalachian mountains or right over us would bring more impacts, but even then, the overall impacts would be low. The potential for heavy rainfall would increase, but even if we received several inches of rain, we've been dry so there would be no flooding issues. Even though Nate would be weakening rapidly, we would get stronger winds that could gust in the 30s. That strength would not cause damage or power outages. Being closer and to the right of Nate's track would mean more spin in the atmosphere that would be capable of producing a brief, isolated tornado.
The model trends are good for us and seem locked in. As usual, stay updated in case anything changes!
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