10-4-17: Keeping an eye on two disturbances in the tropics
10-4-17 WEDNESDAY 11AM
Ed Piotrowski - email@example.com
The break in tropical activity didn't last long. I'm watching two disturbances.
Tropical Depression Sixteen
TD #16 is located in the southern Caribbean sea, a prime location for tropical development this time of the year. It's slowly moving to the northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 MPH. With very warm water below and little to no wind shear, this system has a good chance of further development and could become the next named storm, Nate.
The steering flow around high pressure over the eastern U.S. will force this system generally northwest-to-north for the next 4 days. By Sunday, a dip in the jet stream will turn the system north then northeast. Landfall of whatever becomes of this tropical system will likely occur Sunday or Sunday night between Louisianna and Florida. Yes, that's a large area, but since the system has the potential to strengthen and is still 5 days out, it's impossible to know precisely where the center crosses the coastline. After landfall, the trough will pick it up and quickly move it through the eastern U.S. That will enhance our rain chances Sunday and Monday. How much we get depends on the track, but the models are suggesting anywhere from 0.5" to 2.5" of rain. If the system tracks to our west, there would be a small tornado threat Monday. Gusty winds would be possible Monday as well. Obviously, we'll fine-tune the forecast and discuss specifics on impacts as it continues to develop.
Disturbance #1 is located near South Florida has quickly downgraded, but it continues to produce ongoing showers for the region. However, it has a zero chance of development for both the next two days and the next five days.